Important dates:
Comment: Why a 7-day moving average? Wisconsin tends to have cyclical patterns in testing results, with low spots typically on Mondays (this may be due to lower testing on weekends)
Active cases: Estimated recovery time from health experts varies between 10-20 days, with a nontrivial proportion of cases being long-term / on-going. Even given the testing lag, a conservative approximation is to use the total number of positive (diagnosed) cases across the last 10 days. We will go with this standard, along with a range from 10-14 days of active accumulation, and adjust as more precise information becomes available. 14 days corresponds with two-week standard in place in MN school decisions.
Estimated Active, split by Age group:
Definitions
Case fatality rate, etc: Need to add definitions and compute to table
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 21 2020 | 2783 | 27993 | 99 | 12 | 390 | 572 |
| October 22 2020 | 2850 | 28259 | 103 | 12 | 450 | 586 |
| October 23 2020 | 2941 | 28410 | 104 | 12 | 487 | 633 |
| October 24 2020 | 3057 | 28646 | 109 | 12 | 586 | 716 |
| October 25 2020 | 3142 | 28788 | 110 | 12 | 634 | 749 |
| October 26 2020 | 3320 | 29025 | 115 | 12 | 762 | 920 |
| October 27 2020 | 3442 | 29473 | 121 | 12 | 884 | 988 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 3 | 4.6 | 4.4% | 39 | 0.34% | 44 | 0.38% |
| 10-19 | 18 | 15.6 | 14.8% | 131 | 0.96% | 148 | 1.09% |
| 20-29 | 23 | 21.1 | 22.3% | 197 | 0.94% | 221 | 1.06% |
| 30-39 | 17 | 14.1 | 13.9% | 123 | 0.9% | 135 | 0.99% |
| 40-49 | 10 | 12.0 | 12% | 106 | 1.01% | 111 | 1.06% |
| 50-59 | 26 | 14.0 | 12.8% | 113 | 0.9% | 126 | 1% |
| 60-69 | 14 | 11.0 | 11.3% | 100 | 0.87% | 117 | 1.02% |
| 70+ | 11 | 8.4 | 8.5% | 75 | 0.72% | 86 | 0.82% |
| All ages | 122 | 100.9 | 100% | 884 | 0.84% | 988 | 0.94% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 21 2020 | 1215 | 17691 | 48 | 7 | 403 | 517 |
| October 22 2020 | 1279 | 17885 | 48 | 7 | 446 | 549 |
| October 23 2020 | 1318 | 18021 | 51 | 10 | 459 | 555 |
| October 24 2020 | 1397 | 18158 | 55 | 11 | 510 | 610 |
| October 25 2020 | 1397 | 18256 | 55 | 11 | 438 | 585 |
| October 26 2020 | 1533 | 18387 | 56 | 11 | 516 | 700 |
| October 27 2020 | 1581 | 18568 | 57 | 11 | 564 | 722 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 1 | 1.9 | 3.2% | 18 | 0.23% | 21 | 0.27% |
| 10-19 | 1 | 4.0 | 7.4% | 42 | 0.5% | 53 | 0.63% |
| 20-29 | 2 | 5.6 | 11% | 62 | 0.87% | 91 | 1.28% |
| 30-39 | 9 | 13.1 | 19% | 107 | 1.27% | 130 | 1.55% |
| 40-49 | 10 | 11.9 | 17% | 96 | 1.24% | 124 | 1.6% |
| 50-59 | 15 | 11.9 | 18.1% | 102 | 1.05% | 133 | 1.37% |
| 60-69 | 9 | 10.4 | 14.9% | 84 | 1% | 102 | 1.21% |
| 70+ | 1 | 5.7 | 10.1% | 57 | 0.8% | 72 | 1.01% |
| All ages | 48 | 64.4 | 100% | 564 | 0.87% | 722 | 1.12% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 21 2020 | 858 | 11450 | 37 | 6 | 240 | 323 |
| October 22 2020 | 895 | 11599 | 38 | 6 | 264 | 342 |
| October 23 2020 | 931 | 11712 | 39 | 6 | 286 | 356 |
| October 24 2020 | 970 | 11813 | 39 | 6 | 292 | 372 |
| October 25 2020 | 1016 | 11896 | 39 | 6 | 315 | 398 |
| October 26 2020 | 1062 | 11955 | 41 | 6 | 332 | 431 |
| October 27 2020 | 1093 | 12014 | 45 | 6 | 363 | 448 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 1 | 0.7 | 1.9% | 7 | 0.13% | 8 | 0.15% |
| 10-19 | 0 | 4.6 | 12.9% | 47 | 0.87% | 52 | 0.96% |
| 20-29 | 2 | 5.6 | 14.3% | 52 | 1.15% | 68 | 1.5% |
| 30-39 | 5 | 5.1 | 13.8% | 50 | 0.92% | 66 | 1.22% |
| 40-49 | 3 | 6.0 | 17.4% | 63 | 1.27% | 76 | 1.53% |
| 50-59 | 7 | 6.0 | 13.5% | 49 | 0.72% | 66 | 0.97% |
| 60-69 | 4 | 5.1 | 13.8% | 50 | 0.79% | 57 | 0.9% |
| 70+ | 13 | 5.3 | 12.7% | 46 | 0.73% | 56 | 0.88% |
| All ages | 31 | 38.0 | 100% | 363 | 0.8% | 448 | 0.99% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 21 2020 | 3907 | 31009 | 79 | 15 | 372 | 508 |
| October 22 2020 | 3961 | 31309 | 79 | 17 | 395 | 520 |
| October 23 2020 | 3984 | 31496 | 80 | 17 | 397 | 498 |
| October 24 2020 | 4025 | 31665 | 83 | 20 | 420 | 509 |
| October 25 2020 | 4083 | 31786 | 86 | 20 | 426 | 548 |
| October 26 2020 | 4103 | 31881 | 86 | 20 | 385 | 537 |
| October 27 2020 | 4187 | 32175 | 87 | 20 | 469 | 600 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 8 | 2.0 | 3.4% | 16 | 0.14% | 23 | 0.19% |
| 10-19 | 14 | 4.6 | 10.7% | 50 | 0.3% | 63 | 0.38% |
| 20-29 | 24 | 12.7 | 28.1% | 132 | 0.62% | 165 | 0.78% |
| 30-39 | 12 | 6.4 | 14.1% | 66 | 0.49% | 78 | 0.57% |
| 40-49 | 6 | 5.4 | 12.6% | 59 | 0.43% | 78 | 0.57% |
| 50-59 | 8 | 7.0 | 15.4% | 72 | 0.51% | 86 | 0.61% |
| 60-69 | 6 | 4.1 | 8.5% | 40 | 0.28% | 63 | 0.44% |
| 70+ | 6 | 3.3 | 7.2% | 34 | 0.26% | 44 | 0.34% |
| All ages | 84 | 45.6 | 100% | 469 | 0.4% | 600 | 0.51% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 21 2020 | 13121 | 229610 | 473 | 46 | 1700 | 2387 |
| October 22 2020 | 13315 | 230959 | 489 | 47 | 1730 | 2474 |
| October 23 2020 | 13555 | 232185 | 489 | 47 | 1862 | 2520 |
| October 24 2020 | 13831 | 233596 | 495 | 48 | 1976 | 2591 |
| October 25 2020 | 14126 | 234714 | 505 | 48 | 2054 | 2705 |
| October 26 2020 | 14305 | 235938 | 506 | 48 | 2009 | 2720 |
| October 27 2020 | 14560 | 237168 | 511 | 48 | 2264 | 2867 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 9 | 11.7 | 4.9% | 110 | 0.18% | 136 | 0.23% |
| 10-19 | 32 | 29.1 | 11.7% | 266 | 0.37% | 352 | 0.5% |
| 20-29 | 56 | 58.3 | 23.8% | 538 | 0.52% | 671 | 0.65% |
| 30-39 | 52 | 43.1 | 17.1% | 388 | 0.51% | 490 | 0.64% |
| 40-49 | 31 | 35.4 | 14.4% | 327 | 0.5% | 421 | 0.64% |
| 50-59 | 43 | 34.7 | 13.8% | 313 | 0.48% | 391 | 0.6% |
| 60-69 | 18 | 19.3 | 8.2% | 186 | 0.34% | 238 | 0.44% |
| 70+ | 14 | 16.7 | 6% | 136 | 0.28% | 168 | 0.34% |
| All ages | 255 | 248.4 | 100% | 2264 | 0.41% | 2867 | 0.52% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 21 2020 | 182687 | 1718564 | 9704 | 1681 | 32451 | 43989 |
| October 22 2020 | 186100 | 1730646 | 9855 | 1703 | 33908 | 44270 |
| October 23 2020 | 190478 | 1744072 | 10038 | 1745 | 35007 | 45660 |
| October 24 2020 | 194540 | 1757630 | 10237 | 1770 | 35962 | 46980 |
| October 25 2020 | 198166 | 1768026 | 10332 | 1778 | 35841 | 47930 |
| October 26 2020 | 201049 | 1777892 | 10416 | 1788 | 34863 | 48857 |
| October 27 2020 | 206311 | 1789158 | 10636 | 1852 | 40125 | 50840 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 209 | 151.3 | 3.8% | 1515 | 0.24% | 1891 | 0.3% |
| 10-19 | 523 | 387.7 | 9.6% | 3870 | 0.51% | 4871 | 0.64% |
| 20-29 | 851 | 670.6 | 16.9% | 6791 | 0.9% | 8629 | 1.14% |
| 30-39 | 845 | 631.6 | 16% | 6411 | 0.85% | 8148 | 1.08% |
| 40-49 | 755 | 595.3 | 14.9% | 5986 | 0.86% | 7508 | 1.07% |
| 50-59 | 880 | 664.6 | 16.7% | 6707 | 0.82% | 8549 | 1.05% |
| 60-69 | 637 | 473.4 | 11.9% | 4781 | 0.63% | 6079 | 0.8% |
| 70+ | 562 | 401.1 | 10.1% | 4064 | 0.63% | 5165 | 0.81% |
| All ages | 5262 | 3975.6 | 100% | 40125 | 0.69% | 50840 | 0.87% |
Source: Minnesota’s safe learning plan is very direct, very precise, with scientific basis. Determined on a local level.
Definitions (corresponding / similar to MN plan):
and a set of SUGGESTED GUIDELINES based on the Minnesota reference:
| Criteria 2wk | Criteria 2wk20s | Criteria daily7 | Suggestion |
|---|---|---|---|
| > 25 | > 30 | – | urge extra caution |
| > 28 | > 45* | decreasing | consider staying home and watching class recordings (rather than attending in-person) and visit online OH |
| > 28 | > 45* | steady to increasing | strongly encouraged to stay home and watch class recordings (attend in-person only as absolutely needed) and visit online OH. |
| > 30 | > 50 | decreasing | ’’ ’’ ’’ |
| > 30 | > 50 | steady to increasing | based on the cited criteria from Minnesota, safety of in-person classes no longer seems supportable |
*adjusted to reflect a corresponding proportion of the top cut-off.
| Eau Claire 2wk | Eau Claire 2wk10s | Eau Claire 2wk20s | Eau Claire current daily7 | Eau Claire past daily7 | Eau Claire posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 94.4 | 108.8 | 105.6 | 100.9 | 35.7 | 30.6% |
Important Resources:
| Chippewa 2wk | Chippewa current daily7 | Chippewa past daily7 | Chippewa posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 111.7 | 64.4 | 36.3 | 31.4% |
| Barron 2wk | Barron current daily7 | Barron past daily7 | Barron posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 99 | 38 | 22.1 | 30% |
| La Crosse 2wk | La Crosse 2wk10s | La Crosse 2wk20s | La Crosse current daily7 | La Crosse past daily7 | La Crosse posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50.7 | 38.1 | 77.5 | 45.6 | 33.1 | 19.5% |
| Dane 2wk | Dane 2wk10s | Dane 2wk20s | Dane current daily7 | Dane past daily7 | Dane posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 52.4 | 49.5 | 64.6 | 248.4 | 180.1 | 17.8% |
| Wisconsin 2wk | Wisconsin 2wk10s | Wisconsin 2wk20s | Wisconsin current daily7 | Wisconsin past daily7 | Wisconsin posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 87.3 | 64.4 | 114 | 3975.6 | 3052.6 | 26.7% |
Important Resources:
I devised plots that are similar to those found, for example, at the following locations:
Masks Should I wear a mask in enclosed public spaces? Unequivocally, YES. References for reasoning, using a current (as of July 8) accumulation of over 70 references. A few of my favorites (modeling-wise) are:
A couple more in the works:
Media articles / letters summarizing scientific publications:
Predicting cumulative deaths in state
[1] "The number of cumulative deaths, at a lag of 21 days, are approximately 14.6 times number of cumulative cases to the 0.4 power."
[1] "We thus predict that on 2020-11-17 the cumulative number of deaths in WI will be 1911"
Comparing county-wide active case rates in counties with colleges